Eurozone finance ministers demanded Cyprus pay up to 10 per centof their bank deposits in exchange for a €10bn bailout, which hasalready resulted in panic across the Mediterranean Island as peoplerushed to cash machines to withdraw their savings.According to the latest proposal, smaller depositors with up to€100,000 would be taxed at 3 per cent, savers with €100,000 to€500,000 would lose 10 per cent, while those with more than€500,000 will see 15 per cent written down.The Cypriot parliament will vote on the deposit levy onTuesday.Aton's Peter Westin warns that if the unpopular measure goesforward it may have a contagious effect and repeat itself in otherEU states in economic difficulty.“Given the fact, that the bank assets are five times the size ofGDP, really, Cyprus needs to come to some kind of a solution. But Ithink what people are looking at now is the kind of a strangedemand that the Eurozone is imposing, which is a levy on deposits.Which means it’s not only the rich Russians, who’ll lose theirmoney in Cyprus, but also the local population. So, this is quite aprecedent. And the reason is… if they won’t deal with that it’llhave a contagion effect.”According to Westin, politicians are “unpredictable" so oneshouldn’t take on faith European MP’s promises the Cyprus depositraid won’t happen in other countries.“Even though we have parliamentarians in Europe saying that thisis a one off. The problem is will the depositors in Italy, Spainand Greece believe this and will this cause a renewed massivecrisis in Europe? Interestingly, people are looking at the size ofthe countries – when Greece hit the headlines, people were sayingGreece is just 2 per cent of the Eurozone’s GDP and it’ll be alimited isolated effect. But it spread very quickly. Cyprus isten-times smaller, but again I think we know that in this case sizeisn’t important.”“In this case the most challenging effect will be diminishingexpectations of other countries. So if there’s a belief amongdepositors in other countries than we can have a run on the banksin these other nations. So far as we’ve heard from Spain therehasn’t been a major panic as of yet, but I think this remains to beseen. And this is maybe the biggest fear that it may spread toother nations.”The strategist stressed that the recent events have “tarnishedCyprus as a tax heaven”, adding that it doesn’t mean the Russiancitizens, who keep over $18.3 billion in Cypriot banks, will returntheir savings home. “For now, Russians tend to look abroad for place to put theirmoney. And those that do that – Cyprus won’t be their best choicenow. But those, who want to put the money offshore will put theirmoney offshore. Efforts to bring the money back to Russia require alot of initiatives from the government. And we’re still at thestarting point of that.”Westin concluded by saying that Singapore, may replace Cyprus as amagnet for cash from Russia. … Read More
↧